Impact of Feedstock Costs on Poultry Meal Price Index in 2026

What is Poultry Meal and How Is Its Price Set?

If you buy poultry meal regularly, 2026 is giving you a more favourable cost environment than 2023 or 2022 delivered. Feed ingredient prices have been falling since the second half of 2023 as global grain and oilseed supplies recovered from the supply shocks of the Russia-Ukraine war period. That matters because corn and soybean meal, which together typically constitute 60 to 70 percent of a broiler's total diet and represent the largest variable cost in the poultry processing supply chain, are both running well below their long-run historical averages entering 2026.

But poultry meal pricing is not just a function of feedstock costs at the farm level. HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) has been the most disruptive variable in the poultry supply chain since 2022. Since the H5N1 outbreak began in February 2022, more than 168 million birds have been confirmed HPAI-positive in the United States across 1,689 flocks as of April 2025, according to USDA APHIS and the Congressional Research Service. That flock depletion reduces the volume of poultry by-products available for rendering, which tightens meal supply even when the underlying feedstock economics look favourable.

This article examines the feedstock cost drivers moving the poultry meal price index in 2026, how each variable feeds through to finished meal prices, and what procurement teams sourcing poultry meal at scale should be watching.

The Feedstock Cost Structure of Poultry Meal

Poultry meal pricing follows a two-layer cost structure: the cost of producing the poultry whose by-products become the meal feedstock, and the cost of the rendering operation itself. Understanding both layers explains why poultry meal prices do not always move in the same direction as grain prices.

Layer 1: Corn and Soybean Meal — the Core Feedstock Costs

Broiler rations are built primarily around corn (for energy) and soybean meal (for protein). The feed conversion ratio for broilers is approximately 1.7 to 1.9 kg of feed per kg of live weight, meaning a large commercial operation consumes enormous volumes of both commodities. Their prices directly set the floor cost of producing the birds that generate the by-products used in poultry meal rendering.

According to research published in February 2026 by the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, Indiana corn prices averaged USD 4.45 per bushel in 2025, and projections for the July 2026 futures contract place corn at a median of USD 4.41 per bushel. The 2025-26 crop year is projected to be a record US corn crop at 15.585 billion bushels, which is keeping corn prices well below their long-run average of USD 4.71 per bushel since 2007.

Soybean meal prices have fallen alongside corn. The USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook from February 2025 projected the 2025-26 marketing year soybean meal price at USD 310 per short ton, flat with the prior year, citing ample global oilseed meal supplies. The long-run average soybean meal price since 2007 is USD 360 per ton, according to Purdue data. Current prices are running approximately 14 percent below that long-run average.

The sensitivity of feed costs to grain price movement is precisely quantified. Purdue regression analysis across the January 2007 to December 2025 period found:

• Each USD 0.10 per bushel increase in corn price increases total feed cost by USD 0.43 per hundredweight of finished animal
• Each USD 10 per ton increase in soybean meal price increases feed cost by USD 0.37 per hundredweight

USDA expects feed prices to continue the downward trend in 2026, specifically citing the record 2025-26 corn crop and higher domestic soybean crush generating more meal supply. Farmdoc's projected farrow-to-finish feed cost index for 2026 is 98.8, meaning feed costs are expected to be approximately 1.2 percent below 2025 levels, themselves already 9 percent below 2024. For context, feed costs in 2025 were 44 percent below their 2023 peak.

Layer 2: Rendering Energy and Processing Costs

Even when grain prices fall, poultry meal production costs are not purely correlated with farm-level feed economics. Rendering is an energy-intensive process. Continuous cooking and drying of raw by-products at temperatures sufficient to inactivate pathogens and reduce moisture requires substantial natural gas or other energy inputs. In periods of elevated energy prices, rendering operators face higher per-tonne production costs regardless of what corn is doing.

The energy cost component also explains part of the price premium that enzymatically or fermentation-assisted hydrolysis products carry over conventional press-cake meal. Higher-digestibility products require more processing steps and longer contact times, which add to the energy bill per tonne of finished product. Procurement teams comparing standard poultry meal against higher-spec grades for aquafeed or pet food applications should factor processing method into total cost of ownership, not just purchase price per tonne.

Layer 3: By-product Availability and HPAI Supply Effects

Poultry meal supply depends directly on the volume of by-products generated in processing plants. When flock sizes shrink from disease, fewer birds are processed, fewer by-products are available, and rendering plant throughput falls. This is the supply-side mechanism through which HPAI affects poultry meal prices independently of grain economics.

The scale of HPAI losses in the US has been without modern precedent. According to the Congressional Research Service report published April 2025, 168.62 million birds across 1,689 flocks have been confirmed HPAI-positive since February 2022. EW Nutrition's February 2026 industry review reports total losses at over 175 million birds, making this the costliest poultry disease event in recorded history. The first six weeks of 2025 alone saw 28 million layers depopulated, the worst start to any calendar year on record.

The impact on poultry meal supply is asymmetric across bird type. Table egg layers, which accounted for 75 percent of all HPAI-affected birds despite representing less than 4 percent of the total poultry population, have a longer lifespan than broilers and therefore generate by-products over a longer period. Loss of layer flocks removes by-product supply for an extended period and takes longer to replace than broiler flock losses. Broiler flocks, by contrast, cycle in 6 to 7 weeks and are structurally less exposed to HPAI due to housing type and geographic distribution. USDA forecasts 2025 broiler production up 1.4 percent from 2024, which supports by-product volumes for broiler-based meal.

The practical result entering 2026 is a split signal: grain-driven production costs are easing, but by-product supply remains somewhat constrained relative to pre-outbreak baselines. US egg producers are approximately 8 percent below their 2022 flock baseline as of early 2026, according to EW Nutrition. This supply constraint acts as a partial floor under poultry by-product meal prices even as input costs fall.

Poultry Meal Price Index: What the Data Shows

By-Product Meal Price Range and Benchmark Sources

Spot price data for poultry by-product meal (PBPM) in the US is tracked by commodity reporting services including The Jacobsen and Fastmarkets. A May 2024 Fastmarkets price assessment for poultry by-product meal (pet food grade, 14 percent ash, 64 percent protein, FOB US Southeast) registered USD 700 to 800 per short ton, down from USD 975 per short ton at the same date in 2023. That 20-plus percent year-over-year decline reflects the combination of improving feed economics and partial flock recovery from the 2022-2023 HPAI peak.

The IMF's Global Poultry Price series, tracked via FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, registered 164.24 US cents per pound as of December 2025, providing a benchmark price reference for the global market. The series reflects prices set by the largest global exporter and represents the international reference point against which traded by-product meal is often implicitly priced.

The poultry by-product meal market was valued at USD 7.12 billion globally in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 12.45 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 6.7 percent, according to Verified Market Reports. Animal feed is the dominant end-use segment at the bulk of demand, with pet food and fertilizer applications accounting for the remaining share. Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing regional market, driven by expanding aquaculture and commercial livestock production in China, India, and Southeast Asia.

Price Index Drivers: A Summary Table

The table below summarises the primary feedstock and market variables currently moving the poultry meal price index, their direction of movement in 2026, and their relative impact on finished meal pricing:

The net direction for poultry meal pricing in 2026 is modest downward pressure from improved grain economics and higher broiler volumes, partially offset by continued supply constraints from HPAI-related layer flock depletion. Procurement teams should expect prices below the 2022-2023 peaks but above pre-2022 baselines, with volatility risk remaining elevated due to HPAI's enzootic status in North American wild bird populations.

Regional Price Dynamics

United States

US poultry meal prices in 2026 are shaped by the intersection of record grain supplies pushing feed costs down and HPAI supply disruption keeping by-product availability below pre-outbreak levels. USDA forecasts US broiler production will increase approximately 1 percent in 2026, citing lower feed costs and continued productivity improvements. That production growth supports by-product volumes for rendering.

The USDA ERS Food Price Outlook projects retail poultry prices to increase just 0.1 percent in 2026, reflecting stable consumer prices even as the supply chain absorbs the HPAI disruption. Feed ingredient cost relief is being partially passed through to better margins for integrators rather than showing up as lower consumer prices, which is consistent with historical patterns when feed costs fall faster than retail prices adjust.

Brazil and South America

Brazil produced approximately 15 million metric tons of poultry in 2024, ranking as the world's third largest producer and largest exporter. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's December 2025 Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade report, global chicken meat exports are forecast 3 percent higher in 2026 to a record 14.7 million tons, driven substantially by Brazil's competitive pricing and broad market access.

Brazilian poultry meal supply benefits from the country's large-scale vertically integrated processing sector and comparatively lower corn and soybean input costs given domestic production of both commodities. South America now represents approximately 55 percent of global soybean production. Brazilian-origin poultry meal competes on price with US product in Asian and Middle Eastern markets, and the exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar affects the landed price differential meaningfully.

Asia-Pacific

Asia Pacific is the fastest growing market for poultry meal and the largest region for poultry feed consumption overall. The global poultry feed market was valued at USD 217.91 billion in 2024, with Asia Pacific holding over 30.5 percent of the market according to IMARC Group. China is the world's largest poultry producer at approximately 25 million metric tons in 2024, and domestic poultry meal consumption is substantial. However, import demand for feed-grade poultry by-product meal remains active from Southeast Asian aquaculture and pig farming operations.

For buyers in Southeast Asia sourcing poultry meal internationally, logistics from the US and Brazil represent the primary supply options, with Indian-origin product playing a smaller but growing role. Price differentials between US and Brazilian product in Southeast Asian ports have narrowed in recent years as shipping cost volatility has reduced. Local quality verification remains important given the variation in processing standards across export origins.

What Procurement Teams Should Be Tracking in 2026

Feed buyers and ingredient procurement teams managing poultry meal in 2026 face a specific set of risk variables. Here is what to monitor:

1. HPAI Case Counts and Flock Recovery Data

The USDA APHIS HPAI case tracker is the most current source for understanding whether flock depletion is accelerating or stabilising. HPAI is now enzootic in North American wild birds, meaning seasonal recurrence is structural rather than episodic. Fall wild bird migration seasons represent elevated risk periods. Monitor USDA AMS Egg Market Overview reports for layer inventory data as a proxy for by-product supply pipeline health.

2. USDA WASDE Corn and Soybean Meal Projections

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is released monthly by USDA. The corn and soybean meal price projections in each issue are the primary forward-looking signal for the feed cost floor under broiler production economics. Corn futures prices for the July 2026 contract were trading in the USD 4.11 to 4.73 per bushel range at the 25th to 75th percentile in early February 2026, per Purdue farmdoc data.

3. Fastmarkets and Jacobsen Spot Prices for PBPM

For US Southeast FOB prices, Fastmarkets provides daily assessments for poultry by-product meal in both pet food grade and feed grade specifications. The Jacobsen tracks meat and bone meal, feather meal, and related rendered animal protein price streams. These are the primary price indices for benchmarking purchase contracts. Access requires subscriptions, but both services provide periodic public summaries.

4. Brazil Real / USD Exchange Rate

Brazilian poultry meal is the primary price-competitive alternative to US product in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. The BRL/USD rate directly affects the landed cost of Brazilian meal at Asian ports. When the real weakens, Brazilian product becomes more competitive and can push down regional prices. Monitor the IMF FRED Brazilian real exchange rate series alongside corn and meal fundamentals.

5. Global Poultry Trade Data (USDA FAS)

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service publishes monthly Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade circulars with production, trade, and price data. Global chicken meat exports reached a record 14.7 million tons in 2026 forecasts, up 3 percent from 2025. Higher production volumes mean more by-products available for rendering, which supports meal supply. Trade shifts, particularly changes in Brazil's export destinations, affect regional meal availability and pricing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current price of poultry meal per ton?

Poultry by-product meal spot prices in the US Southeast (pet food grade, FOB) registered USD 700 to 800 per short ton in mid-2024, down from approximately USD 975 per short ton a year earlier. Feed-grade poultry meal trades at a discount to pet food grade. Prices change daily and should be verified through Fastmarkets, The Jacobsen, or USDA AMS before any purchasing decision. Accessing a price reporting service subscription is the only reliable way to track current market levels.

Why is poultry meal cheaper in 2026 than in 2022-2023?

Two factors drove the price decline. First, corn and soybean meal prices fell sharply from their 2022 peaks as global grain supplies recovered, reducing the cost of producing the broiler and layer flocks that generate by-products. Second, partial flock recovery from HPAI losses increased processing volumes and by-product availability, releasing some of the supply pressure that had tightened meal markets in 2022-2023.

How does HPAI affect poultry meal prices?

HPAI reduces the number of birds being processed, which directly reduces the volume of by-products available for rendering into meal. Fewer by-products means tighter supply, which supports prices even when grain costs are falling. Table egg layers are disproportionately affected by HPAI, accounting for 75 percent of all HPAI-related losses in the US. Because layers have longer productive lifespans than broilers, their loss removes by-product supply for an extended period.

What is the difference between poultry meal and poultry by-product meal?

Poultry meal is produced from whole carcasses, excluding feathers, and typically contains 57 to 65 percent crude protein. Poultry by-product meal (PBPM) is produced from the non-edible parts of poultry processing such as heads, feet, organs, and necks, and carries a protein content of approximately 58 to 67 percent depending on formulation. PBPM generally trades at a discount to clean poultry meal in feed applications, but at a premium for pet food grade with strict ash and quality specifications.

Which countries produce the most poultry meal?

The United States and Brazil are the two largest producers of poultry meal for export, reflecting their combined dominance in global broiler and turkey processing. The US produced approximately 22 million metric tons of poultry in 2024, while Brazil produced 15 million metric tons. Both countries generate substantial by-product volumes for rendering. European producers, particularly in Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland, supply significant volumes to the EU feed market.

How should feed buyers hedge against poultry meal price volatility?

The main tools are forward purchasing on contract (locking price for 3 to 12 months), supplier diversification across US and Brazilian origins, and maintaining approved alternative protein specs in feed formulations so substitution between poultry meal, feather meal, and soybean meal is operationally possible when price differentials shift. Monitoring HPAI case counts and USDA WASDE updates monthly provides the earliest signal of supply-side changes that will move prices.

Feed manufacturers and livestock producers sourcing poultry meal across borders deal with a consistent set of friction points: navigating price discovery without access to subscription-based reporting services, verifying product grade and specification against what arrives at port, managing origin documentation for import compliance, and finding suppliers who can offer contract volumes rather than spot-only arrangements.

Conclusion

Poultry meal buyers have a better cost environment in 2026 than they had in 2022 or 2023. Corn and soybean meal are both running below their long-run averages, feed cost indices are projected at approximately 1.2 percent below 2025 levels, and broiler production volumes are growing, which supports by-product supply. The USDA's record 2025-26 corn crop is the structural driver keeping grain prices soft.

The risk factor that procurement teams cannot afford to ignore is HPAI. Over 168 million birds have been lost in the US since February 2022, the H5N1 strain is now enzootic in North American wild birds, and US egg producers remain approximately 8 percent below their 2022 flock baseline. That ongoing supply constraint means poultry meal will not fall to pre-2022 price levels even if grain costs continue improving. The price floor is set by by-product availability, not just feedstock economics.

For buyers sourcing at scale across multiple origins, the strategy is diversification and monitoring. Track USDA APHIS HPAI case counts, WASDE corn and soybean meal projections, and Fastmarkets or Jacobsen PBPM spot prices on a regular cycle. Build alternative protein specifications into your approved formulation range so that price shifts between poultry meal, feather meal, and soybean meal can be acted on without triggering a reformulation review each time. And work with trading partners who can offer specification-documented product at contract volumes rather than relying on spot market purchasing for a core ingredient.